Can the Cubs Really Improve Enough to Make the Playoffs?

The Cubs won 73 games last year, which was the most the team had won since 2010 and a respectable improvement on the 66 wins from 2013. But 73 is still a long way from the playoffs. It took 88 wins to make it last year and looking back the last 25 years that is almost always what it takes (other than about a dozen odd exceptions). Yet many pundits are giving the Cubs a strong chance of climbing all the way to the playoffs, and Cubs fans, of course, are hopeful of such a rise. So what does it look like when a team climbs from a win total in the low 70s one year to the high 80s the next? Is it about free agent acquisitions, recovery from injuries, or maturing young talent? Is there a typical path that teams take and are the Cubs on that path?

To answer these questions, I examined all playoff teams over the past 25 years (since 1990) and noted the number of wins they had the prior year. I excluded years 1994-1996 given the strike-shortened schedules that made comparisons difficult. Overall, there were 166 playoff teams in that span, and most were in the playoffs or had solid records the prior year (the average was 87 wins). There were, however, 41 teams that finished below .500 the year before. Of those, there were 16 teams that had 73 wins or less. This includes the Cubs three times. I touch on all 16 teams below to highlight some the paths teams have taken and conclude with thoughts on whether or not such a jump is realistic for the 2015 Cubs.

1991 Atlanta Braves – Veteran Additions Mix with Maturing Youth

The Braves of 1991, the beginning of their long dynasty, were not that different than the Braves of 1990. Greg Olson, Jeff Treadway, Mark Lemke, Jeff Blauser, Ron Gant, David Justice, and Lonnie Smith all anchored the lineup in both years. Moreover, the young core had already started to shine. Gant and Justice actually had a lower OPS in 1991 than 1990. On the pitching side, Charlie Leibrandt, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Steve Avery all started 20 games or more in both seasons. So what changed?

Two things happened in 1991. First, the young rotation went from good to great. Smoltz and Glavine put up WAR values of 3.6 and 2.2 in 1990 and Avery really struggled in his first season (-1.2 WAR, 5.64 ERA). In 1991, those values were 5.4 (Smoltz), 8.5 (Glavine), and 5.2 (Avery). So the team’s improvement was driven by incredible developments in young pitchers (in their ages 25-24-21 seasons).

Second, the team added several important veterans to the lineup that provided needed leadership and helped create a balanced team. Defensive specialist Rafael Belliard came over to play shortstop and anchored the middle infield (1.1 dWAR on the season). Speedster Otis Nixon swiped 73 bags. The addition of Sid Bream (and the exit of Dale Murphy) allowed David Justice to move to right field. Finally, Terry Pendleton, a veteran of two playoff Cardinal teams during the 1980s, had the best season of his career at age 30 and won the NL MVP.

Though the team struggled to just 65 wins in 1990, most of the core was already in place and with Gant, Justice, Glavine, and Smoltz entering their ages 25-26 seasons in 1991 the team was ready to compete. The addition of just a few veterans to fill specific holes and provide leadership helped the team reach its potential and the playoffs. In addition, Bobby Cox was in his first full season (he had taken over mid-way through 1990) at the helm.


1993 Philadelphia Phillies – Crusty Veterans Find the Magic

Very similar to the Braves above, the 1993 Phillies that reached the World Series were mostly in place in 1992. Darren Daulton, John Kruk, Mickey Morandini, Dave Hollins, and Lenny Dykstra anchored the lineups; and Curt Schilling, Terry Mulholland, and Tommy Greene manned the rotations. Perplexingly, most of the position players and pitchers had far better seasons in 1992 than 1993 (other than the young Greene who really blossomed in 1993). So what changed?

If there ever was an example of a group of scrappy veterans just “clicking” to make the playoffs, the 1993 Phillies were it. New additions Jim Eisenreich and Pete Incaviglia put up a combined 5.5 WAR in a fantastic OF platoon, Danny Jackson had 210 IP with a 3.77 ERA, and 40-year-old Larry Anderson put up a 2.77 ERA in 64 appearances out of the pen. The team finished below .500 for the six years prior to 1993 and for the seven years following, so the team almost certainly overachieved in 1993 in what ultimately seems like a case of veterans just finding ways to win.


1997 San Francisco Giants – Trading Up

Most of the 1996 Giants were on the wrong side of 30 and plagued by injuries. The team had a number of glaring holes in the field, and players like Mark Carreon, Steve Scarsone, and Marvin Benard were starters. But several developments in 1996 paved the way for a productive off-season leading into 1997. First, Bill Mueller hit .330 in 200 ABs as a rookie. Second, a 23-year-old Shawn Estes had a 3.60 ERA in 11 starts. Third, Kirk Rueter, brought over in a mid-season trade, seemed to respond well to the change in scenery.

With the emergence of Mueller, Matt Williams was expendable and traded in the off-season to the Indians in a blockbuster deal that brought back Jeff Kent, Julian Tavarez, and Jose Vizcaino. With Estes and Rueter slotted into the rotation, the Giants were able to ship lefty Allen Watson to the Angels for J.T. Snow. Darryl Hamilton was also signed as a free agent to man CF. With those three moves, 5 of the 8 starting position players were changed. Mueller, Kent, and Snow flourished in a lineup with Bonds, and the potent offense was enough to support a rotation anchored by Estes, Rueter, and Mark Gardner. Tavarez was also the key set-up man for closer Rod Beck. The team raced to 90 wins and the NL West title.


1998 Chicago Cubs – Sosa and Veterans Offense Propel Success

In Ryne Sandberg’s final year, the Cubs put up a dismal 68-94 record in 1997. But the team began building for 1998 during August, swinging a trade with the Mets that brought back Lance Johnson and Mark Clark in exchange for Brian McRae, Turk Wendell, and Mel Rojas. The Cubs continued to deal in the off-season, sending promising rookie Doug Glanville (who had hit .300 in 510 PAs) to the Phillies for Mickey Morandini. They then signed Henry Rodriguez, Jeff Blauser, and Rod Beck as free agents.

The 1998 team thus essentially sported a new middle infield, 2/3rds of a new outfield, a new starter, and a new closer. The veterans also brought much-needed post-season experience: Morandini had been part of the 1993 Phillies, Blauser was a member of several Brave playoff teams, and Beck closed for the division winning Giants of the year before. Rookie Kerry Wood also emerged as a dominant starter, and Jose Hernandez blossomed and hit 23 HR to take over 3B from a sophomore-slumping Keven Orie. Sammy Sosa moved his OPS from .779 to 1.024 en route to 66 home runs, and the team sailed into the Wild Card.

The addition of veterans, particularly position players, through trades and free agency was the key to the improvement.


1999 Arizona Diamondbacks – Buying Quick Success

Ignoring the expansion team label, the Diamondbacks won 100 games in just their second year. Without much young talent of its own yet, the team not surprisingly relied on trades and free agency to pull off the massive improvement. They traded for Luiz Gonzalez and Tony Womack, and signed Steve Finley and Randy Johnson as free agents. Gonzalez, Finley, and Jay Bell all had career-highs (to that point) in homeruns [yes, Jay Bell hit 38…], and Matt Williams added 38 of his own to bolster a loaded offense. Johnson earned his big contract by going 17-9 with a 2.48 ERA and 364 strikeouts on his way to winning the Cy Young Award. A mid-season trade for Matt Mantei helped bolster the bullpen.

Overall, the team showed that you can buy a winning team quickly, but also got lucky that they hit several position players who were just beginning periods of unexpected power.


2001 Houston Astros – Stars Debut

The 2000 Astros had strong offensive seasons from Jeff Bagwell, Richard Hidalgo, and Moises Alou, but that’s about it. The rest of the offense struggled or was banged up (e.g. Biggio) and the pitching was horrid: only one starter had an ERA under 5.00 and closer Billy Wagner was injured for most of the year. So the 2001 team was bound to better. Bagwell, Hidalgo, and Alou continued to hit, Biggio rebounded, and free agent Vinny Castilla added some pop at 3B. Wagner was fully recovered from his injury and retook the closer role, allowing Octavio Dotel to serve as a dominant set-up man (105 IP, 2.66 ERA).  

But the key to a 21-game improvement was the rise of several young players. First, Lance Berkman, who had done well in 100+ games in his rookie campaign, put up a 6.5 WAR season in his sophomore year, coming in 5^th in the NL MVP voting. Second, Wade Miller had struggled to a 5.14 ERA in 16 starts in 2000 as a 23-year old, but went 16-8 with a 3.40 ERA in 2001 in his first full season. Third, Roy Oswalt debuted in the majors and never looked back, going 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA—and would have been Rookie of the Year if it were not for Albert Pujols.

Guys like Berkman and Oswalt don’t come around that often, and their emergence, combined with a now-healthy group of quality veterans already in place, fueled the meteoric rise of the Astros in 2001.


2003 Chicago Cubs – Veteran Acquisitions Mix with Young Talent

Jim Hendry took over as General Manager of the Cubs in July 2002. The team was very old, but new young talent was beginning to emerge. Mark Prior made his big league debut, Carlos Zambrano was given a longer look after a cup of coffee in 2001, and Corey Patterson, while struggling, was completing his first full season at age 22.

Beginning in July and through the off-season, the Cubs jettisoned a number of older players, including Tom Gordon, Jeff Fassero, Bill Mueller, Joe Girardi, and Fred McGriff. But then several trades brought in a different group of veterans who performed considerably better: Todd Hundley was sent to the Dodgers for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek, and Damien Miller and Paul Bako were acquired in smaller trades to bring in an entirely new catching duo.

Most importantly, the young stars shined in 2003. Patterson had an .839 OPS in 83 games before going down with an injury, Prior went 18-6, Zambrano put up a 3.11 ERA in over 200 IP, and a 26-year-old Kerry Wood put up 14 wins of his own. A late season trade for Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez sealed the Division title for the Cubs.

Miller had won the 2001 World Series with the Diamondbacks, Bako brought playoff experience from his time with the Braves, Karros had been in the post-season twice, and Lofton had been in the playoffs six times. The veteran experience meshed well with the young guns in the rotation and the team came within five outs of making the World Series.


2006 Detroit Tigers – Youth and Luck Provide a Winning Combination

The 2005 Tigers struggled to a 4^th place finish with 71 wins, but soared to 95 wins and a Wild Card birth in 2006. Much of the team—Ivan Rodriguez, Brandon Inge, Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez—was the same, but there were three key developments that led to the improvement.

First, two young stars emerged and played crucial roles: Curtis Granderson became the everyday centerfielder in his first full season, and Justin Verlander won Rookie of the Year by going 17-9. Second, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson had career years. Bonderman’s WAR was 3.2 and he was never about 2 for any other year, and Robertson’s WAR was 3.5 and he was never above even 1.3 again. Third, veterans Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones, in their ages 38 and 41 seasons, anchored the rotation and bullpen respectively.

Much of the core was in place already and the addition of a couple key veterans, the emergence of a couple of young stars, all combined with some luck, led to a World Series appearance.


2006 Los Angeles Dodgers – A Young Core Hits the Ground Running

It is not difficult to see how team where Jason Phillips, Hee-Seop Choi, Mike Edwards, Ricky Ledee, Oscar Robles, Olmedo Saenz, Jason Repko, and Antonio Perez received over 200 ABs struggled. The 2006 Dodgers received a sizeable facelift from that 2005 team. Veterans Nomar Garciparra, Rafael Furcal, and Kenny Lofton were signed as free agents to bolster the lineup, Aaron Sele was signed to add another veteran arm to the staff, and Takashi Saito became the closer in his first season in the US.

Yet youth also played a big role. Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Russell Martin all made their big league debuts in 2006, with Ethier and Martin serving as primary starters for most of the year and Billingsley starting 16 games in the rotation. In addition, Jonathan Broxton had 76 IP out of the pen as the primary set-up man in his first full season in the bigs at age 22.

The veterans that were brought in performed well and youngsters with little to no big league experience adjusted quickly and the team climbed to 88 wins under new manager Grady Little.  


2007 Chicago Cubs – A Free Agent Splurge Brings Immediate Rewards

The 2006 Cubs finished with a dismal 66 wins in Dusty Baker’s last year at the helm. On offense, Derrek Lee was injured for most of the year, Ronny Cedeno struggled to a tune of a .610 OPS in his first season, and Neifi Perez received 236 ABs, which was about 236 too many. On the mound, Prior and Wood were injured and 73 starts combined thus fell to youngsters Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, and Juan Mateo—Hill was the only one to have an ERA even under 5.00. Moreover, Ryan Dempster blew 9 saves in just 33 opportunities in his second year as closer.

New manager Lou Piniella was given a much different team in 2007. The big free agent signing was Alfonso Soriano, but Mark DeRosa and Cliff Floyd were also brought in on offense. Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis were signed to add stability to the rotation, and allowed Marmol to move to the pen where he flourished.

Hill and Marshall both adjusted nicely in their second full seasons, and rookie Ryan Theriot supplanted Cedeno at SS and put up a .934 OPS. Michael Barrett, after his fight with Carlos Zambrano, was traded in the June and the team ended up with Jason Kendall and rookie Geovony Soto behind the place to finish the season.

The free agent acquisitions and improvement by several youngsters was enough to help the Cubs climb to 85 wins and capture a weak NL Central.


2008 Tampa Bay Rays – Longoria Joins a Talented Core

The 2007 and 2008 Rays were largely the same. There were only a few moves in the off-season, one of which was dropping the “Devil” from the team name. So what were the keys to a 31-game improvement?

On offense, the only major change was Evan Longoria, who made his major league debut and won the NL Rookie of the Year with a 272/343/531 slash line.

On the pitching side, youngsters Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine improved considerably from the year before, and Matt Garza (acquired in trade with the Twins) also performed well. Troy Percival was signed as a free agent to be the closer and add a veteran presence to the pen.

But that’s about it. The core was already in place in 2007 and most of the players (Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton) had performed well. The addition of Longoria and marked improvements by young starting pitchers was all that the team needed to find its groove and make it all the way to the World Series.


2008 White Sox – Youngsters Become Stars

The 2007 White Sox that won 72 games was largely the same team that won 89 games in 2008. Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Jim Thome anchored the offense, and Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd manned the rotation. The rise was primarily fueled by the addition or development of four young players.

First, a young Chris Carter was shipped off to Arizona for Carlos Quentin, who had struggled in 81 games for the Diamondbacks in 2007. But Quentin blossomed in his age 25-season, hitting 36 home runs and putting up an OPS of .965 en route to finishing 5^th in the AL MVP voting. Second, Cuban Alexei Ramirez made his debut in the US and finished second in the AL ROY voting while playing second base. Third, in his age-22 rookie season in 2007, Danks had gone 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA (1.1 WAR). He adjusted well and went 12-9 with a 3.32 ERA (6.4 WAR) in 2008. Finally, Floyd had likewise pitched poorly in 10 starts in 2007 in his age-24 season, but went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA in 2008.

Already a decent team in 2007, the White Sox jumped 15 wins because of star performances from young players.   


2011 Arizona Diamondbacks – Youngsters Rebound

The 2010 Diamondbacks struggled to 65 wins. The main position players (Chris Young, Justin Upton, Gerrado Parra, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero) all played well, but not great. In the rotation, Rodrigo Lopez, Edwin Jackson, and Dan Haren all had poor seasons. And the team did tried several different closers, without success.

The improvement in 2011 was fueled partly by general improvement across the offense, with Upton, Montero, and Parra having much better seasons, and Young continuing his excellence. Several key developments, however, also advanced the pitching staff. First, J.J. Putz was signed as a free agent to hold down the closer’s role and saved 45 games with a 2.17 ERA. Second, Daniel Hudon, who was acquired in a late season trade with the White Sox for Edwin Jackson, flourished in Arizona, going 16-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 222 IP. Third, rooking Josh Collmenter went 10-10 with a 3.38 ERA.

These improvements and additions propelled the team to 94 wins and an NL West Division title.  


2012 Baltimore Orioles – Young Core Hit Their Stride

The 2012 Orioles are a perfect example of a group of young, core players developing simultaneously and hitting their stride. Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Chris Davis were all in their mid-20s and had solid seasons. A 19-year old Manny Machado also flashed some talent in 200 plate appearances. On the mound, 26-year old Wei-Yin Chen, making his debut in the US, anchored the rotation, while Miguel Gonzalez shined as a rookie and Chris Tillman put up a 2.93 ERA in 15 starts. Finally, 29-year old Jim Johnson was handed the closer’s role and compiled 51 saves.  

The team won a Wild Card spot with 93 wins, a huge improvement over the 69 wins from 2011. With much of the core still in place, the Orioles followed that up with a 3^rd place finish in 2013 and 96 wins and a division title in 2014. Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman continued to anchor the rotation and Wieters, Jones, Machado, and Markakis have fueled the offense. Overall, the Orioles have capitalized on their young players maturing, and have averaged 91 wins over the past three seasons, and look to remain competitive for at least the next few years.


2013 Cleveland Indians – Lady Luck Visits Cleveland

Like the Orioles above, the 2013 Indians also had several core players in their primes. Carlos Santana was in his third full season at age 27 and had a 4.3 WAR year. A 26-year-old Michael Brantley also put up decent numbers in his third full season in LF. In his first full season, Corey Kluber put up a 3.85 ERA in 24 starts. Brantley and Kluber would follow 2013 up with monster seasons in 2014, finishing 3^rd in the MVP and winning the AL Cy Young Award respectively.

Yet a sizeable amount of luck also fueled the Indians rise in 2013. Taking a flyer on a minor league deal with Scott Kazmir, who spent 2011-12 pitching in Independent Leagues, they were rewarded with a respectable 10-9 record and 4.04 ERA in 29 starts. Ubaldo Jimenez lost 17 games in 2012, but rebounded to go 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA in 2013 (only to regress again with the Orioles in 2014). The talented Justin Masterson went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA in one of just two good seasons he has had in a slew of bad ones. Zach McAllister posted a 3.75 ERA in 24 starts in just his second full season (but slumped badly in 2014). Likewise, in his second full year, Jason Kipnis had an OPS of .818, which now looks like an aberration given 2012’s .714 and 2014’s .640.

So some core players were in place in their late 20s, but career years from a number of players, particularly pitchers, led to 2013’s Wild Card finish and helps explain why the team finished in just third place last year.  


2013 Boston Red Sox – More Health and Less Drama

After a 10-year hiatus, Bobby Valentine returned to the field as manager, taking over the Red Sox in 2012. The outcome, predicted by many, was a disaster. Following five straight years of at least 89 wins, the Red Sox fell to 69 wins and the season was marred by clubhouse drama and fights between Valentine and his players and coaches via the media. Injuries also hurt the team, with David Ortiz, Carl Crawford, and Jacoby Ellsbury also missing significant time.

The transformation of the team began in August when the Red Sox ate much of the money they had recently spent and sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez in a trade to the Dodgers. Valentine was predictably fired the day after the season ended. The team then signed Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino as free agents to help the offense that was aided by healthy and productive seasons by Dustin Pedroia, Ortiz, and Ellsbury. On the pitching side, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz rebounded from poor seasons, John Lackey returned after missing all of 2012 due to injury, and after several productive seasons for the Orioles and Rangers as a set-up man free agent signee Koji Uehara was handed the closer’s role and responded with a dominant 1.09 ERA in 74 IP.

The result was a climb to 97 wins and a World Series championship.


Lessons for the 2015 Cubs

If there is anything the above analysis should demonstrate it is that there is no one way to succeed in baseball. Teams have gone from terrible to successful—even World Series Champions—through a variety of processes.

First, in some cases, talented teams were injured or underperformed and a rebound, and in turn success, was relatively predictable. The banged up 2012 Red Sox were not as bad as they performed under Valentine. Health, less drama, and a couple of free agent acquisitions did the trick. Similarly, the 2008 Rays and 2011 Diamondbacks were mostly the same teams as they were the year before. Longoria’s debut and a couple of minor tweaks enabled the Rays to rise, and a general improvement across the lineup propelled he Diamondbacks to success.

The 2015 Cubs certainly do not fit this type of team, having struggled for several years and with lots of question marks surrounding many of their young players.

In other cases, teams simply bought or traded for a contending team in the off season. The 1997 Giants, 1998 Cubs, 1999 Diamondbacks, and 2007 Cubs all fit this pathway. The teams were veteran-laden and changed dramatically from the previous year.

While the 2015 Cubs signed Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and a few minor pieces (e.g. Jason Motte, David Rosse) and traded for Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero, the majority of the team from 2014 is still in place, and so this is not the path the Cubs will take to success this time around.

Other teams simply got lucky. Those watching baseball in the early 1990s felt that the 1993 Phillies didn’t really “look” like a championship team, and the franchise’s lack of success before or after that season suggest that our gut was right. The 2006 Tigers perhaps fall into the luck category as well. The team would continue to be successful, and typically over .500, for the next few years, but wouldn’t reach the playoffs until 2011. The extra edge in 2006 was mainly due to a last hurrah from Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones, and career years from Bonderman and Robertson. I would place the 2013 Indians here as well. While several young stars were there, it is difficult to discount huge career years from 4-5 key players.  

The 2015 Cubs, of course, will take any luck that they can get, especially given the decades of bad luck that have seemingly hit the team. Looking at the roster, it would certainly be possible that Dexter Fowler has a career year playing for a contract. Perhaps a LF platoon of Chris Coghlan and Chris Denorfia clicks. And on the pitching side perhaps someone like Edwin Jackson rebounds or Jacob Turner or Felix Doubrant realize their potential.

Several teams were fueled by the blossoming of young stars. Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt propelled an already strong 2001 Astros team. Likewise, several youngsters emerged to push the 2008 White Sox forward. Finally, the 2012 Orioles were a very young team, with several players making debuts.

The 2015 Cubs hope to replicate some of this. Hopes are high for Kris Bryant to debut and become a Berkman-type of presence in the lineup right away. Similarly, the organization hopes that the late season exposure for Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara last year leads to them blossoming this year. But unlike those teams above, the Cubs are relying on only a few youngsters and have other options in place if they fail. Moreover, outside of Hendricks, there are virtually none on the pitching side. The Cubs, in other words, don’t need a Roy Oswalt or John Danks to carry the staff.  

Three teams followed a unique path of key free agent acquisitions, often with playoff experience, mixing with a developing young core. The 1991 Braves already had Glavine, Smoltz, Justice, and Gant in place. Having already shown success on the big league stage they were primed to continue to their success or breakout further in their mid-20s. A new manager (Bobby Cox in his first full season) was able to mix the veteran additions, including MVP Terry Pendleton, with the youth to bring about a winner and start a dynasty.

The 2003 Cubs look similar in many ways. Wood, Prior, and Zambrano were predicted to anchor the staff for years to come, and Corey Patterson was expected to be a mainstay in CF. The team brought in a veteran battery of Miller and Bako and added other free agents like Grudzielanek, Karros, and later Lofton with playoff experience to lead the team. The plan worked well for 2003. Injuries to the pitching staff, however, along with the failure of position players like Patterson, Choi, and Hill to develop into big league stars, prevented the team from continuing its success.

Finally, the 2006 Dodgers had a young core of Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, and Jonathan Broxton just emerging. The team then added several veterans, like Garciaparra, Furcal, and Lofton to the mix to take the pressure of the young guys and help provide leadership. The team has had 80 wins or more in every season since, falling below .500 just once.

The 2015 Cubs most resemble this type of plan for success. Rizzo and Castro are still young but have already demonstrated their stardom. Arrieta looks to be a potential front of the rotation starter going forward. The bullpen is filled with young, powerful arms that are just entering their prime ages. And the hope is that offensive stars like Bryant, Baez, and Alcantara are on the cusp of successful careers. The front office spent the off-season using trades and free agent signings to bring in veteran leadership in a few key areas. The new backstop duo of Montero and Bard mirrors the Miller-Bako move by the Cubs a decade ago—both have playoff experience. Fowler adds a bit more experience and stability to a key position and spot in the batting order. Most importantly, veterans Lester and Hammel were brought in to anchor the rotation, with Lester being a proven winner with 84 post season IP under his belt.

In conclusion, the best hope for the 2015 Cubs to improve enough to make the playoffs is a unique combination of veteran free agents and a core group of talented youngsters. And if a few veterans get lucky and have career years and/or one or more youngsters (e.g. Bryant or Baez) breaks out and becomes a major league start right away, the Cubs could make an even bigger jump and contend in the playoffs. Moreover, if the young players do develop as expected and avoid injuries, the future looks bright for the franchise going forward—this path is more likely to bring sustained success than others.