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Historical Ex-Cub Factor Data
Thanks to the hard work of Carl Condon, I now have a list of ex-Cubs for all post-season series going back to 1903. This data is still preliminary, since neither of us has been able to verify exactly who was on the official post-season rosters for every season. The data from the most recent years is verified, but before about 1993, we are going solely on who appeared in the World Series rather than who was on the roster.
2001 saw only the second instance of a team overcoming The Factor as the Diamondbacks, 4 ex-Cubs deep, won the Series in dramatic fashion. Here's the count for the rest of the '01 playoff teams:
Arizona Diamondbacks (4): Miguel Batista, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan
Atlanta Braves (3): Dave Martinez, Greg Maddux, Rey Sanchez
Houston Astros (3): Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, Jose Vizcaino
Oakland Athletics (1): Mark Guthrie
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Miguel Cairo
Seattle Mariners (1): Jaime Moyer
Cleveland Indians (0)
New York Yankees (0)
RESULT: DIAMONDBACKS (4) DEF. YANKEES (0) -- THE FACTOR IS DEFEATED
In 2000, almost everyone hit the post-season safely below the threshhold:
New York Mets (3): Matt Franco, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
New York Yankees (2): Glenallen Hill, Jose Vizcaino
Atlanta Braves (2): Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Shawon Dunston
Oakland Athletics (1): Doug Jones
Seattle Mariners (1): Jamie Moyer
San Francisco Giants (0)
Chicago White Sox (0)
RESULT: YANKEES (2) DEF. METS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
1999 marked the second time the Braves were tripped up by The Factor:
Atlanta Braves (3): Jose Hernandez, Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
New York Mets (3):Shawon Dunston, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
Texas Rangers (3): Mike Morgan, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Zeile
Arizona Diamondbacks (2): Dan Plesac, Luis Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox (1): Rod Beck
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Matt Mieske
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
1998's playoff teams were pretty much ex-Cub-free:
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Doug Jones
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Eckersley
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Houston Astros (1): Dave Clark
New Yok Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (1): Randy Myers
Texas Rangers (1): Todd Zeile
Ironically, the only team with a critical mass of ex-Cubs on their playoff roster in '98 was the Cubs themselves:
Chicago Cubs (3): Glenallen Hill, Mike Morgan, Terry Mulholland
As you may remember, they didn't make it to the World Series.
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. PADRES (1) -- NO FACTOR
The 1997 playoff teams ended up with the following ex-Cubs on their roster:
San Francisco Giants (4): Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Terry Mulholland
Baltimore Orioles (3): Jerome Walton, Rafael Palmeiro, Randy Myers
Seattle Mariners (3): Jamie Moyer, Heathcliff Slocumb, Rick Wilkins
New York Yankees (2): Joe Girardi, Rey Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Luis Gonzalez
Florida Marlins (1): Alex Arias
Three of the six divisions were won by teams with critical masses of ex-Cubs. Before the playoffs, I wrote that chances were the Orioles and Mariners will drop Jerome Walton and Rick Wilkins, respectively, to drop below the 3-man threshold, which they did. The Giants, however, found themselves with way too many ex-Cubs. Even if they had made it to the World Series, there was no way they could have won.
It looked like the Altanta Braves learned their lesson from the previous season (see below); with Dwight Smith gone and Mike Bielecki on the shelf with shoulder surgery, they were well below the ex-Cub threshold. None of the other playoff teams had anything to worry about.
RESULT: MARLINS (1) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR
Remember 1996? Here are that year's playoff teams, with their ex-Cub contingent:
Baltimore Orioles (4): Randy Myers, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Parent, Todd Zeile
Atlanta Braves (3): Mike Bielecki, Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
St. Louis Cardinals (2): Dennis Eckersley, Danny Jackson
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Jose Vizcaino
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
Texas Rangers (0)
Before the playoffs, I wrote the following: "So perhaps we have found the weak link in the Braves' armor -- 3 ex-Cubs is too many, even if one of them is Greg Maddux. Similarly, the Orioles' late-season acquisitions of Mark Parent and Todd Zeile may have in fact been a deadly mistake. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were wise to leave Mike Morgan off the post-season roster."
Well, whaddyaknow? The curse of the ex-Cubs strikes again. The Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the World Series and end up losing to the Yankees.
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (4) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
1995
Atlanta Braves (2): Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
Cincinnati Reds (2) Chuck McElroy, Jerome Walton
Colorado Rockies (1): Joe Girardi
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Seattle Mariners (1): Doug Strange
Boston Red Sox (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
New York Yankees (0)
RESULT: BRAVES (2) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR
1994: No playoffs
1993
Atlanta Braves (3): Damon Berryhill, Jay Howell, Greg Maddux
Philadelphia Phillies (2): Danny Jackson, Mitch Williams
Chicago White Sox (1): George Bell
Toronto Blue Jays (1): Joe Carter
RESULT: BLUE JAYS (1) DEF. PHILLIES (2) -- NO FACTOR
1992
Pittsburgh Pirates (3): Danny Jackson, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (1): Damon Berryhill
Oakland Athletics (1): Dennis Eckersley
RESULT: BLUE JAYS (2) DEF. BRAVES (1) -- NO FACTOR
1991: The first World Series since 1963 to feature no ex-Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates (4): Bill Landrum, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho, Curtis Wilkerson
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (0)
Minnesota Twins (0)
RESULT: TWINS (0) DEF. BRAVES (0) -- NO FACTOR
1990
Oakland Athletics (3): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey, Scott Sanderson
Pittsburgh Pirates (2): Bill Landrum, Carmelo Martinez
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp
Cincinnati Reds (1): Billy Hatcher
RESULT: REDS (1) DEF. ATHLETICS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
Back to the Ex-Cub Factor
Recent comments
crunch 09/24/2023 - 09:52 pm (view)
cubs win...so do MIA and CIN,. ARZ is close to winning (up by 6 in the 8th). total wash of a day.
off day tomorrow then it's the last week of baseball...not an easy one vs MIL and ATL. last-week drama...
crunch 09/24/2023 - 09:47 pm (view)
merryweather puts the first couple guys on with 0 outs...and smyly is up in the pen. back end of the pen situation is a mess.
crunch 09/24/2023 - 09:31 pm (view)
"Coming into the game, they were 0-819 when trailing by nine runs or more." damn.
Charlie 09/24/2023 - 09:48 am (view)
I wonder how many pitchers have missed this much time in a relatively short span with recurring forearm issues and not had it lead to surgery.
Cubster 09/24/2023 - 09:34 am (view)
Historic win for Pirates...
https://www.mlb.com/news/pirates-mount-historic-rally-to-beat-reds?part…
Arizona Phil 09/23/2023 - 09:02 pm (view)
The deadline for trading players on an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) and players who were outrighted to the minors after signing a 2023 MLB contract was August 1st, but trades involving players on a minor league reserve list are prohibited beginning at 12 PM (Eastern) on the 7th day prior to the originally-scheduled conclusion of the 2023 MLB regular season (Sunday 9/24) through the last day of the MLB regular season (including a day on which a regular season game is played after the originally-scheduled conclusion of the MLB regular season).
Arizona Phil 09/24/2023 - 09:41 am (view)
jdrnym:
As you know, the abbreviation "DFA" stands for "Designated for Assignment."
There are three types of assignments:
1. Trade Assignment (when a player is traded from one MLB club to another)
2. Outright Assignment (when a player is sent to the club's minor league Domestic Reserve List after Outright Assignment Waivers have been secured).
3. Optional Assignment (when a player is optioned to the minors, subject to being recalled at a later time).
So when a player is Designated for Assignment, the player can either be traded, outrighted to the minors, or optioned to the minors.
Normally a player is not Designated for Assignment and then optioned to the minors, because the club could just option the player to the minors immediately without a DFA.
Back in the day It was not that unusual for a player to be Designated for Assignment so that Optional Assignment Waivers could be secured (Optional Assignment Waivers were required before certain players could be optioned to the minors, and just like the old Trade Assignment Waivers, Optional Assignment Waivers were revocable if a player was claimed).
https://www.thecubreporter.com/why-player-designated-assignment-and-the…
Optional Assignment Waivers were eliminated in 2016 and Trade Assignment Waivers were eliminated in 2021, so all revocable waivers have been eliminated. What's left are Outright Assignment Waivers and Outright Release Waivers, and both are irrevocable (cannot be withdrawn) once requested.
With the new five option limit whereby a player can be optioned to the minors no more than five times in a given season before Outright Assignment Waivers must be secured (and it - IS - Outright Assignment Waivers that must be secured, even though it is for the purpose of an Optional Assignment), it now might be necessary for a club to DFA a player to clear a spot on the MLB 26-man roster (MLB 28-man roster in September) for another player and to allow for the two days (actually 47 hours) required to run a player through waivers. After the two day "Waiver Claiming Period" concludes (and presuming the player isn't claimed), the player can be returned to the MLB 40-man roster and optioned to the minors (even after being Designated for Assignment). But for that to happen, the player can - NOT - be replaced on the MLB 40-man roster by another player after being Designated for Assignment.
However, in the case of Jordan Luplow, he had - NOT - been optioned to the minors five times in the 2023 season prior to be optioned to AAA St. Paul on 9/18, so the Twins did not need to DFA Luplow in order to secure Outright Assignment Waivers so that he could be optioned to the minors a sixth time. But because he was Designated for Assignment and not replaced on the 40 by another player after the DFA, the Twins could return him to the 40 and option him to the minors even after he was Designated for Assignment, because an Optional Assignment is one of the three types of assignments.
So Luplow was Designated for Assignment even though he didn't need to be, and then the Twins returned him to their MLB 40-man roster and optioned him to the minors a couple of days later (which they can do, since Luplow wasn't replaced on the 40 by another player after he was Designated for Assignment). What the Twins did (DFA Luplow and then return him to the 40 and option him to the minors a couple of days later) was within the rules. It's just very odd and doesn't make a lot of sense.
So I will offer what I believe is the most logical reason the Twins did this:
The Twins DFA'd Luplow because they intended to reinstate Chris Paddack from the 60-day IL, but then Carlos Correa suddenly needed to go on the 10-day IL and they recalled Trevor Larnach to replace Correa, but then they probably decided they should keep Luplow on the 40-man roster, too (and on Optional Assignment to AAA), and didn't want to risk losing him off waivers or by him electing free-agency after being outrighted. Luplow has Article XX-D rights (he has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career, so he would had the right to elect free-agency after he was outrighted). Clearly the Twins felt they might need Luplow's RH bat after losing Correa and with Royce Lewis having left a game with a hamstring injury that led to an IL assignment. And that meant that Paddack would remain on his minor league rehab assignment a few extra days, but the Twins will need him in the post-season, not now.
Also, if Luplow was outrighted instead of being optioned, he would no longer be automatically eligible to play in the post-season (except as a possible injury replacement).
Not only did Carlos Correa go on the IL, Royce Lewis went on the IL, too, two days after Correa went on the IL and two days after Luplow was optioned to AAA, so the Twins did in fact end up needing Luplow after all, and recalled him just a couple of days after he was optioned to replace Lewis on the MLB 28-man roster. (So both Larnach and Luplow were recalled within a couple of days of each other, replacing Correa and Lewis on the Twins MLB 28-man roster).
So that's all I've got. That is the only thing that makes sense. The Twins DFA'd Luplow because they had intended to replace him on the 40 with another player (probably Paddack) and hoped that they would be able to run him through waivers and that he wouldn't get claimed and that he would accept an Outright Assignment, but then they suddenly changed their minds because of the injury to Correa and the possibility that Lewis might also have to go on the IL (which did, in fact, happen the next day). Also, with the injuries to Correa and Lewis, the Twins wanted Luplow to remain automatically post-season eligible, which would not be the case if he was outrighted.
Again, the Twins were able to return Luplow to the 40 and option him to AAA because he hadn't been replaced on the 40 by another player after he was Designated for Assignment.
crunch 09/23/2023 - 09:00 pm (view)
CIN out here blowing a 9-0 lead they built through 3 innings. 9-9 tie in the 7th.
crunch 09/23/2023 - 09:05 pm (view)
boxburger 10d IL, k.thompson back up. it's his right forearm (again).
crunch 09/23/2023 - 09:12 pm (view)
merryweather got out of it, but he loaded the bases with 1 out. of course ross got cuas up in the pen...thankfully he didn't need to come in.
looks like cuas gets the 9th.