Projected Post-2022 "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.
Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 116 days or 2+116 post-2021, 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009).

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career. However, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two" player who has not been outrighted previously in his career cannot defer his right to elect free-agency. He must make his choice when he is outrighted. 

At present there are 124 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2022 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 124 (27.28 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 27) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2022. 

Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, or because his club intentionally manipulated the rules to keep the player from achieving "super Two" status, any of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial pending post-season audit by MLB and the MLBPA.

TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2022: 
Thairo Estrada, INF-OF (SF) - 2+169 
James Karinchak, RHRP (CLE) - 2+169
Brusdar Graterol, RHRP (LAD) - 2+167 
Jesus Luzardo, LHSP (MIA) - 2+165 
Nick Madrigal, 2B (CUBS) - 2+164
Taylor Ward, OF (LAA) - 2+164 
Kyle Garlick, OF (MIN) - 2+163 
Mauricio Dubon, INF-OF (HOU) - 2+162 
Brady Singer, RHSP (KC) - 2+161 
Tony Gonsolin, RHSP (LAD) - 2+152 
Josh Rojas, INF-OF (AZ) - 2+152 
Santiago Espinal, INF (TOR) - 2+149 
Patrick Sandoval, LHSP (LAA) - 2+149
Kyle Lewis, OF (SEA) - 2+147
Abraham Toro, INF (SEA) - 2+147  
Evan White, 1B (SEA) - 2+146
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B (TEX) - 2+145  
Rafael Ortega, OF (CUBS) - 2+145 
Rony Garcia, RHSP (DET) - 2+142 
Edmundo Sosa, INF (PHI) - 2+140 
Kris Bubic, LHSP (KC) - 2+137  
Evan Phillips, RHRP (LAD) - 2+136 
David Peterson LHSP (NYM) - 2+135 
Adrian Sampson, RHP (CUBS) - 2+134 
Kyle Funkhouser, RHRP (DET) - 2+133 
Jason Adam, RHRP (TB) - 2+132 
Randy Arozarena, OF (TB) - 2+129 
++++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED "SUPER TWO" CUT-OFF - 2+128
++++++++++++++++++++++
Daulton Varsho, C-OF (AZ) - 2+128
Nick Solak, INF (TEX) - 2+126 
A. J. Puk, LHRP (OAK) - 2+124 
Cole Irvin, LHSP (OAK) - 2+120

So if it remains unchanged, 2+128 MLB ST will be the post-2022 "Super Two" threshold cut-off.  

Tony Gonsolin, Randy Arozarena, Patrick Sandoval, Jesus Luzardo, Brady Singer, and Nathaniel Lowe won't have to worry, but for some of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him. And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll  concerns. It could also motivate a club to extend a contract extension offer to avoid what could be four years of salary arbitration.  

Also, even though Evan White is signed to a multi-year contract (through 2025 with multiple annual club options through 2028) and as such will not be eligible for salary arbitration post-2022, getting "Super Two" status will impact him by making him eligible to elect free-agency if he were to be outrighted.