When the Skies of November Turn Gloomy

Finwe Noldaran 12/07/2023 - 12:41 pm (view)

Arizona P:

You hit the nail on the head, there's really no major player that we need to do special wheeling and dealing and signing to accommodate a small window while they're in their prime; we need to look at this year as a year of fleshing things out and transitioning/moving into our window of contention, and focus our effort  on extending that window for years and years, not throwing everything desparately at a short window.......

Arizona Phil 12/07/2023 - 12:04 pm (view)

If the Cubs do move Matt Shaw to 1st base and don't sign or acquire in a trade any position players or pitchers in the meantime (or at least nobody for more than one year), this could be the Cubs Opening Day lineup in 2025: 

1. PCA, CF 
2. Hoerner, 2B 
3, Happ, LF 
4. Suzuki, RF 
5. Shaw, 1B 
6. Morel/Caissie, DH 
7. Swanson, SS  
8. Amaya/Ballesteros, C 
9. Murray, 3B 

BENCH: 
Canario, OF 
Mastrobuoni or Vazquez, INF  

STARTING PITCHERS:
Steele 
Taillon
Horton 
Wicks 
Assad, Brown, Wesneski, Kilian, Powell, Birdsell, or ?  

BULLPEN: 
Alzolay 
Palencia 
L. Little
Cuas  
Horn  
Roberts 
Martin 
Hodge 

Also, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr would be under club control (via arb) through 2026 but they are both out of minor league options, and Michael Rucker and Keegan Thompson will be out of minor league options after next season, so their value as shuttle guys would be greatly diminished due to loss of fungibility.  

James Triantos, Jefferson Rojas, or Pedro Ramirez (2B), Kevin Alcantara (RF), Morel, Caissie, Canario, Brennen Davis, Christian Franklin, or Zyhir Hope (LF), Matt Mervis, Haydn McGeary, or Brian Kalmer (DH), and Assad, Brown, Wesneski, Powell, Birdsell, Jackson Ferris, Drew Gray, Michael Arias, Brody McCullough, Will Sanders, or ? (SP) can replace Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, and Taillon when their contracts expire after the 2026 season. 

At least that would be my master plan going forward (very much subject to change, of course), again presuming the Cubs don't sign or acquire any position players or SP or closer who would be signed beyond the 2024 season. 

The only thing is, if the Cubs did it this way (going in-house rather than signing free agents to lengthy contracts or trading for established players or pitchers), the Cubs would (at least temporarily) probably project as a 70-75 win team in 2024 and would probably be "sellers" at the Trade Deadline, looking to move Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Yan Gomes, Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman (and probably Merryweather, and Leiter, too), that is unless they can sign free agents or acquire guys who would not be signed beyond 2024 (or at the very least not beyond 2026, when the Happ-Hoerner-Suzuki-Taillon window closes) who might be able to help keep them in playoff contention in 2024. 

The Cubs farm system is absolutely loaded. There are probably at least a half-dozen small market MLB clubs (KC, OAK, MIA, STL, COL, and MIN) plus the White Sox and the Angels that would kill to have the Cubs minor league system as it presently exists. 

Arizona Phil 12/07/2023 - 12:37 am (view)

If I was the Cubs, I would be working Matt Shaw at 1st base before I'd move Christopher Morel there. A Shaw comp is Steve Garvey (a plus hitter with loud contact and a solid glove but a rag arm). 

In fact I wish the Cubs had worked Shaw at 1st base at Instructs or assigned him to the AFL to play 1st base, but for some reason he did not attend Instructs and was not assigned to the AFL. 

If he can learn to play 1st base, Shaw could be in Wrigley by mid-2024, maybe even sooner. 

Shaw is a first-baseman waiting to happen. 

And I still believe Christopher Morel will be traded as part of a package to acquire a SP, so that he can play LF (the position scouts say he should play).   

Arizona Phil 12/07/2023 - 12:51 am (view)

The Reds signing Jeimer Candelario should allow them to package two or three of their infielders in a deal for Tyler Glasnow. 

Finwe Noldaran 12/07/2023 - 12:59 am (view)

crunch:

If he's half as good as how much he made me irritated when the camera would pan to him in the dugout during games while he was playing, we'll be alright............

Finwe Noldaran 12/07/2023 - 12:56 am (view)

Arizona P:

Totally agree. I was really wanting the Cubs to be sellers, and while hindsight is 20/20, that looks as though it may have been the best option; although, part of the reason they decided not to be sellers may have been what some of the returns we're going to be, so my thoughts are merely speculation based on lack of insight into the specifics of conversations leading up to the deadline. I find myself wanting us to allow the prospects to develop and play meaningful roles on the big league team, as I feel that we have quite a few that will become good if not prayerfully great players, but if we trade them away or sign players to fill their positions in a desperate attempt to contend now, I'm left wondering if approaching this year as a transition year, while giving some prospects time in the minors and then bringing them up to see what we have in them, and maybe looking at next year (2025) as more of a contention point may be the way to go, and may even be a catalyst in the long-term development of the consistency in contending that the franchise needs and letting things happen organically, rather than pressing or trying to control things and making a flurry of moves?

Irrespective, I think Counsel was a great choice for manager, now we just need to add some charging stations at Wrigley, maybe where the garage was?

Finwe Noldaran 12/07/2023 - 12:46 am (view)

Arizona P:

Just saw crunch saying Candelario went to the Reds, I also was wanting to avoid the retread market or losing a draft pick.......

Finwe Noldaran 12/07/2023 - 12:41 am (view)

Arizona P:

Totally agree, I was inferring the latter portion of my comment, and agree with your assessment that it's similar to last year; just headscratching............

crunch 12/07/2023 - 12:16 am (view)

it is taking more than a minute for me to get used to craig counsell being the cubs manager.

he's going to take the field on opening day at wrigley and get massively cheered.

that is weird.  that's a thing that's happening, though.

history aside, while i am horrified at the amount of money they're paying him, i welcome his style of management over what d.ross has given the team.  love d.ross and how chill + ready to deliver he kept the team, but he had a serious pitching short-hook problem that exhausted the pen and some very questionable bench/pinch-hitting use.

Arizona Phil 12/07/2023 - 12:04 am (view)

FINWE N: If you go by what Counsell did with the Brewers, he is much more likely to go with younger players than Ross was. I think part of it was that Ross was a "veteran players manager," meaning he was well liked and respected by veteran players because he was inclined to play them over younger unproven guys. 

And that actually might have been OK if the Cubs had been "sellers"at the trade deadline (as they clearly had planned to be before suddenly deciding to go fr it), because Ross would have played the veterans a lot the first four months of the season (which would have maximized their trade value), and then Ross would have had no choice but to play the younger guys the last two months after the veterans were traded. 

But of course it didn't work out that way. 

One thing about Craig Counsell that might have attracted Hoyer to him is that Counsel is very "collaborative" as a manager and welcomes and even demands lots of input from the analytics department. In fact I have heard tell that Counsell knows at least as much as the geeks know and that he routinely goes to them for information rather than waiting for it to be offered. So think of Ross as a Chevy pick-up truck, while Counsell is a Tesla.